Friday, May 11, 2007

Polls and whatnot

My paying job has overwhelmed me lately, so I have had to skip making comments here.

The recent maneuvering around the GRT had one interesting tidbit. Cited as evidence of the unpopularity of the GRT locally was an "Ask Illinois" poll. Yes, the same "Ask Illinois" that conducted the notorious push poll during the school board election. The Whig reported the poll as solid social science:

"Durham was referring to a poll conducted April 16 by Ask Illinois. It showed the gross receipts tax is opposed by 76.27 percent of 906 respondents in the 93rd House District — Adams, Brown, Schuyler, Scott, Cass, and parts of Pike and Hancock counties. Only 12.36 percent support the tax and another 11.37 percent offered no opinion.

"That 6-to-1 opposition of the tax among Western Illinois residents with an opinion on the issue is greater than in any other House district."

I think the GRT's a bad idea, too, but these data are highly suspect. To give you an idea of how "scientific" the Ask Illinois polls are, here's the one-question "poll" they used on Chicago-area residents during the recent controversy over a big-box retail ordinance in that city:

"Members of the Chicago City Council want to stop new retail stores from opening in the city because the union bosses don't want the competition. These new stores would create thousands of new jobs in underdeveloped neighborhoods. Here's our question: do you want to see retail development and thousands of new jobs in Chicago's underdeveloped neighborhoods? If you want to see the jobs, press 1, if you think the council should stop the jobs press 2 if you're not sure press 3."

If you want to be considered a scientific polling firm, you don't do bullshit push polls like that one.